Held from May 17 to 21, the 2026 U.S. Travel Association’s IPW conference brought together nearly 5,000 delegates from over 60 countries. This is the largest inbound-travel conference in the U.S., driving nearly 11 million international visitors to the country and generating an estimated $26.1 billion in spending as reported by the U.S. Travel Association.
This year, the conference was attended by a contingent of Trump administration officials, including Nick Adams, President Trump’s newly appointed special envoy for tourism. During the event, Adams announced his new U.S. inbound tourism target: attracting 100 million visitors by 2030. Despite the ambitious goal, the majority of Canadian travelers remain skeptical and continue to avoid the U.S.
Nick Adams Targets 46% Rise In International Visitors By 2030
According to the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), “total international visitation to the United States is expected to grow by 25 percent from 68.3 million visitors in 2025 to 85.2 million visitors in 2030.”
Despite these estimates, Nick Adams is setting a much bolder target. His goal is to attract 100 million visitors by 2030, a 46% increase compared to 2025. According to him, major events, such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, will help the country meet this target. However, current estimates for the World Cup tell a different story.
According to data from the American Hotel and Lodging Association (AHLA), hotels across the 11 U.S. FIFA host cities are reporting fewer bookings than first expected. For instance, Visit Seattle reports that the number of expected international visitors has dropped by 17%. In addition, Martha Sheridan, chief executive of Meet Boston, told The New York Times that demand for hotels in the city remains well below the 2024 projection, with June 2026 up 11% from 2025.
Despite Adams’ bold tourism target, several international visitors, especially Canadians, appear to have no intention of traveling to the U.S. any time soon.
Canadian Travelers Remain Skeptical
Canadians have recently set a new record low for travel to the U.S., unseen since 1972. Recent data from Statistics Canada showed that the number of Canadian residents returning from overseas destinations exceeded those returning from the U.S. by car for the third month in a row in March 2026. The situation is unlikely to change in the near future, as a new report showed that 70% of Canadian travelers have no intention of entering the U.S.
This is having drastic consequences for some U.S. states. For instance, Arizona’s visitor numbers have fallen fast. Data from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport shows how passenger numbers for major Canadian carriers like Air Canada and WestJet fell from 291,895 to 228,545 in the first three months of 2026 compared to last year.
New York has also experienced a sharp decline, reporting a 21% drop in Canadian tourists in 2025 compared to the previous year. This has resulted in a 2% decrease in travel-related employment. Despite these statistics, Adams remains positive.
Nick Adams Acknowledges The 2025 Decline But Remains Optimistic
In 2025, the U.S. was the only major country to report a decline in international visitors, with a 5.5% drop from 72.3 million to 68.3 million. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, tourist arrivals from Canada declined by 20.9% last year, while international visitor spending plummeted by 2.4%. The first few months of 2026 didn’t show positive results as the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration reported a 4.3% decline in international arrivals, with Canadian numbers down 15.2%.
Several factors have contributed to this travel shift, including a widespread resentment towards Trump’s tariff policies and his rhetoric about making Canada the 51st U.S. state. Increased scrutiny has also affected arrivals.
|
U.S. Travel Association 2026 Projections |
|
|---|---|
|
International inbound travel spending |
$178 billion (1.6%) |
|
Inbound international visits |
70.6 million (3.4%) |
|
Domestic leisure travel spending |
$909 billion (0.9%) |
Over the past few months, the U.S. administration has proposed a series of new policies that experts believe may negatively affect inbound tourism. For instance, in December 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) considered implementing a new rule requiring travelers from the 42 countries participating in the Visa Waiver Program (VWP) to provide five years of social media history.
The CBP is now revising its proposed social media screening. The amount of information travelers will be required to provide will vary depending on their answers to the application questions.
At the U.S. Travel Association’s IPW conference, Adams acknowledged the 2025 decline in inbound tourism but maintained a positive attitude, saying the Trump administration would “turn it around.”
“I will do everything in my power to make sure that our policies are policies that don’t discourage tourism from the places that have been so good to the industry,” Adams said, as reported by Travel Weekly.
However, U.S. Travel Association CEO Geoff Freeman continued to express his concerns about these policies, “I think the industry is going to have to work even harder in the remainder of 2026 and in 2027 and 2028 to keep some of the bad ideas at bay.”
At present, the U.S. Travel Association is predicting 3.4% growth in inbound visitors in 2026. According to its estimates, the country will return to its 2019 levels (79 million international visitors) only in 2029. In light of these statistics, it is evident that Adams’ goal of attracting 100 million international tourists by 2030 is highly ambitious. Only time will tell whether the U.S. will meet such a bold target.
