Donald Trump’s nationalist rhetoric, his dialectical and trade attacks on other countries, his policy of deporting immigrants, and a few isolated incidents at the border have sparked fears in the tourism sector of a sharp drop in visitors to the United States. Provisional numbers show a turning point in arrival figures for tourists, students and business travelers. In the case of tourists from Spain, visits fell 32.5% in March, but soared 47.7% in April due to the different timing of the Easter holidays. For the first four months of the year, Spanish tourism to the U.S. grew 1.2%; taking students and business travelers into account, the increase is 1.8%, according to official data from the Department of Commerce.
Overall, during the first four months of the year, 10.16 million visitors arrived in the United States from abroad (excluding Mexico and Canada, for which the U.S. keeps separate records), with an overall decline of 0.2% and very different trends by country. Figures through March showed a much larger drop, but were distorted by Easter.
There are, however, signs that Trump is scaring away tourism. Of those 10.16 million visitors, 8.12 million were tourists, a 1.1% decrease compared to the January-April 2024 figure. The decline isn’t significant, but compares negatively against growth of 7.1% in January, when the sector had been expecting a record year. Trump took office on January 20, so most of that month’s trips took place or were scheduled before his return to the White House.
The decline will be even more pronounced if it includes figures from Canada, which accounts for nearly 28% of visitors. The drop in arrivals from Canada was already 9.8% in February and March, and Canadian statistics show it intensified in March and April. Last month, the return of Canadian residents after trips to the United States fell 19.9% by air and 35.2% by land, according to Statistics Canada.
Trump has been particularly hostile toward Canada. He has fantasized about annexing the country and violated the trade agreements he himself negotiated, imposing tariffs on its products. The U.S. president’s attitude has unleashed a wave of nationalism in Canada, with calls to boycott U.S. products and cancel vacations there. Airbnb has found that Canadians are traveling less to the United States and more to Mexico.
When choosing a tourist destination, many factors come into play beyond the destination’s appeal, including exchange rates, how well the economy is doing in the countries of origin, perceived hostility against foreigners, and even fear, making it difficult to establish patterns. In the Canadian case, the decline seems clearly due to Trump’s attitude, and it’s possible that his desire to take control of Greenland may also have led to an 11% drop in visits from Denmark.
On the contrary, perhaps this geopolitical pattern partly explains — due to the affinity with their governments — why the arrival of tourists, workers and students from Argentina (+25.6%), Israel (+20.8%), and Italy (+9.9%) has skyrocketed, although it is risky to draw any conclusions.
Even more difficult to assess is the role that fear may play in the evolution of tourism. The rejection of a French scientist at the border (according to France, for his anti-Trump remarks; according to the United States, for violating a confidentiality agreement regarding a U.S. research center) and the prolonged detentions of German citizens Lucas Sielaff and Jessica Brösche on the Mexican border were particularly high-profile cases. Total arrivals from France fell by 8.3% (9.7% for tourists) and from Germany by 7.1% (8.8% for tourists). And it may be that the xenophobic rhetoric, deportations and the withdrawal of temporary protection status are deterring tourists from Haiti (down 29%), Venezuela (down 17.8%), Nicaragua (down 22.9%), and other Latin American countries.
Among the top 20 countries of origin (excluding Mexico and Canada), arrivals increased in nine and decreased in 11 others. The largest declines in this group were in Ecuador, South Korea and Chile. However, in addition to Argentina, Israel, and Italy, more visitors arrived from the United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan, China, Taiwan and Spain.
In the case of Spain, official statistics show that visitors to the U.S. increased by 1.8% over the first four months of the year, reaching 260,354, compared with 6.5% growth in January. The bulk of visitors were tourists: 210,887, representing an increase of 1.2%, although the largest percentage increases were in business trips (up 4.5% to 37,804) and students (up 4.4% to 11,663). The average age of Spanish visitors is 40.1 years, and their preferred destinations are New York (75,028), Florida (62,163) and California (23,222).
Negative forecasts
The peak season is now starting, and the outlook for tourism in the United States is bleak. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the global body representing the travel and tourism private sector, estimates that the United States is on track to lose “a staggering $12.5 billion in international traveler spend this year,” according to a report released in the first half of this month. The WTTC believes that international visitor spending in the United States will fall below $169 billion this year, compared to more than $181 billion in 2024.
According to the study, the United States is the only country of the 184 analyzed by the WTTC and Oxford Economics where international visitor spending is expected to decline in 2025. “This is a wake-up call for the U.S. government,” said Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the WTTC, presenting the report. “The world’s biggest travel & tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction, not because of a lack of demand, but because of a failure to act. While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” warned the former senior executive of the IAG group.
“Without urgent action to restore international traveler confidence, it could take several years for the U.S. just to return to pre-pandemic levels of international visitor spend, not even the peak from 10 years ago,” she added. “This is about growth in the U.S. economy — it is doable, but it needs leadership from DC.”
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