Donald Trump’s vicious anti-immigrant agenda, trade wars, international bullying, and contempt for allies come with a price tag. The United States will lose international talent (both students and workers) to other countries. Americans are already paying higher prices on goods made (partially or in whole) overseas. Less noticed, but equally troubling: The U.S. is already losing billions in tourism while bracing itself for an underwhelming 2026 men’s World Cup and 2028 Olympics.
“[A] study from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) that analyzed the economic impact of tourism in 184 countries revealed the U.S. was the only country forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025,” Forbes reports. “The WTTC projects the U.S. to be on track to lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending this year compared to last year, according to the research.” That represents a nearly $30B swing from a projected $16.3B increase.
Unsurprisingly, the biggest downturn comes from Canada, the source of about ¼ of international tourism in 2024. “Last year, Canadians spent $20.5 billion—nearly twice what Americans spent at McDonald’s restaurants in all of last year,” Forbes noted. “In May, Canadian visitation dropped 38% by car and 24% by air compared to the same month in 2024.” Trump’s tariffs coupled with his obnoxious chatter about Canada becoming the 51st state have, predictably, convinced many Canadians not to visit.
The fallout disproportionately hits northern states such as Maine, a tourist destination that lies on the border. “Maine’s Office of Tourism says that Canadian visitors spent about $497.7 million in the state in 2024,” an NBC TV affiliate reported earlier this month. “But now state officials warn that up to 225,000 Canadian tourists could be lost in 2025 — a shortfall that could cost the state hundreds of millions in tourism revenue.” In May alone, 85,000 fewer Canadians came in than during May 2024.
At a June 16 summit hosted by Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, governors from six New England states plus New York sat down with Canadian officials. WBUR reported: “In Massachusetts, it’s about a 20% decline, Healey said. Vermont reports hotel reservations by Canadians are down 45% and credit card spending is down 36%.” Between February and April, Maine’s tourism experienced a 26% decrease, according to Maine Gov. Janet Mills. “It’s not the tariffs that affected them so much as the hurt pride for Canadian citizens. And I understand that.”
The downturn is not limited to the Northeast. CNN reported in June that North Dakota had lost an estimated $13.4 million in spending from Canada while Canadians’ hotel bookings in Montana dropped 73% in the first three months of the year.
Nor is this limited to border states. At the end of May, the Wall Street Journal reported on a nationwide drop in tourist bookings from overseas. “Flight bookings to the U.S. from Europe are down by about 12% through August. San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles are seeing even larger decline.” Trump and his noxious policies are the most obvious cause for the travel downturn: “Some cite the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and reports of foreign visitors being detained or deported from the U.S. Others say they want to signal their discontent with the White House’s policies, echoing boycotts of American-made products by Canadians and Teslas in Europe.”
While New York City has been able to sustain its tourism, other parts of New York state, including Buffalo, have been slammed. The Buffalo Bills, according to the New York Times, have 8,000 Canadian ticket holders (more than 10% of the stadium capacity). The franchise and surrounding businesses have grounds to worry whether the Bills will be playing to patches of empty seats. No Buffalo sports team can afford to ignore recent signs that Canadian traffic has slowed. (Canadian crossings for a recent Toronto Maple Leaf’s game in Buffalo Sabres dropped more than 30% from a game last March.)
As bad as things have been to date, Trump’s impact on attendance at the men’s World Cup in 2026 (cohosted with Mexico and Canada) and the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles will likely be devastating. Earlier this month, 90 civil society groups implored FIFA to use its influence with Trump “to push the Trump administration to guarantee the rights of millions of football fans looking to attend the World Cup next summer.” (Even if he does, why would anybody trust a Trump “guarantee”?)
If foreigners run the risk of being barred entry, hassled, detained, or deported (including to third countries where they have no attachment) hundreds of thousands—if not millions—of fans may stay away. Trump’s travel bans (which by then may be expanded to more countries) could be used to prevent fans, players, team officials, and others from entering the games, something that even other human rights miscreants like China and Russia have not tried to pull. With matches spread among Canada and Mexico, fans could decide to visit only those countries, shunning the U.S. (FIFA almost certainly will not move matches out of the U.S. unless teams and major sponsors threaten to stay away—an unlikely development, given the sort of retribution Trump could exact.)
The 2028 Olympics may be even more dicey considering Trump’s animus toward Los Angeles and willingness to deploy military forces there. If even a fraction of the foreign visitors stay away, the enormous investment (over $70B) required to host the event could be put at risk. The Olympic organizers insist Trump will not interfere with travelers, but as with FIFA, no one can ensure Trump will keep any promise. (Visitors know this as well, which will prompt many to simply avoid the hassle and watch from home.)
International visitors have figured out that they can register their outrage over a racist, authoritarian bully simply by voicing their dissent with their feet and their wallets. (And really, who could blame them?) But American hospitality businesses, event promoters, sponsors, advertisers, athletes, and fans—not to mention all those invested in the international image of the U.S.—will take it on the chin.
