The United States is facing a significant decline in international tourism in 2025, with foreign visitor numbers and spending forecast to drop sharply.
Analysts link the downturn to a series of policy moves by President Donald Trump, including new travel bans, heightened border scrutiny, and rollbacks on civil rights protections.
The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates that these developments could cost the US economy $12.5 billion this year, deepening the trade deficit as inbound tourism is considered an export.
Foreign arrivals and spending decline
According to the US International Trade Administration, foreign air arrivals to the US fell by 2.5% through April compared with the same period last year, with a notable 10% drop in March following the announcement of tariffs targeting Canada, China and Mexico.
Canada, the top source of international visitors to the US, has seen a 15% decline in cross-border travel in April alone. Major European airlines have begun reducing flights to key US cities, including New York, Miami, and Las Vegas.
Spending by international tourists is projected to decrease by 7% in 2025, marking the first drop since the pandemic recovery began.
The World Travel & Tourism Council warns that the US is the only major global destination expected to record a fall in tourism revenue this year, with earnings from foreign visitors falling below $169 billion.
The council does not expect US tourism spending to return to pre-Covid-19 levels before 2030.
Travel warnings and route changes shift global tourism trends
At least 12 countries have issued travel advisories urging caution when visiting the United States. Nations such as Canada, Germany, France, and the UK have warned their citizens about the risk of detention, denial of entry, or the seizure of personal devices.
LGBTQ+ travellers have also been cautioned by governments including Ireland and the Netherlands following US policy changes affecting gender recognition.
As a result, many tourists are choosing alternative destinations.
Tourism Economics reports that global flight bookings to the US from May through July are down 11% compared to 2024. Canadian bookings are off by a third, a drop that could eliminate $6 billion in spending and more than 40,000 US jobs.
Countries such as Japan and Vietnam are emerging as winners in the redirected tourism flow, with Japan reporting a record number of monthly visitors.
Cities and business travel hit hard
Among the 20 US cities most dependent on international tourism, 18 are forecast to suffer declines in foreign visitor spending.
Detroit, Seattle and Tampa are expected to see the sharpest drops, with losses also predicted in cities like Philadelphia and Phoenix.
Only Honolulu and New York are forecast to avoid major downturns, though New York officials expect a 17% decrease in overseas tourism compared to 2024.
Corporate travel is also under pressure.
A survey by the Global Business Travel Association found that nearly one-third of travel managers expect reduced company spending due to recent US government actions.
The number of European business travellers entering the US dropped by 18% in April alone. The association has revised its 2025 forecast downward, anticipating a 5% decline in corporate travel expenditure.
Meanwhile, fewer Americans are planning trips abroad. Only 18% expect to travel overseas within the next six months, down from 24% in December, according to the Conference Board.
Rising economic uncertainty is prompting many to scale back or cancel international holidays in favour of domestic alternatives.
With shifting global travel patterns and growing international discontent, analysts suggest the US tourism sector faces a prolonged and uncertain recovery.
Navigate the shifting tariff landscape with real-time data and market-leading analysis. Request a free demo for GlobalData’s Strategic Intelligence here.
